2023 IHSA playoffs: Steve Soucie’s Class 1A first-round analysis

St. Bede's Jose DeLaTorre runs past Seneca's Nate Othon (10) and Nick Grant (4) at Seneca on Friday, Oct. 20, 2023.

The road to the Class 1A state championship starts with figuring out where the entrants from the Northwest Upstate Illini Conference reside. A representative of the conference has won the 1A title the last six seasons and in eight of the last nine.

Lena-Winslow, winner of the last three titles, is the odds-on favorite again and owns the state’s longest active winning streak at 28 games.

First-round matchups

Lena-Winslow vs. Rockford Lutheran: Lena-Winslow is the favorite to win the Class 1A title until proven otherwise. The Panthers have won three straight state championships and only one opponent has come within 21 points of defeating them this year. Rockford Lutheran had to defeat another 4-4 team just to get into the field and might be helped by the fact it plays in a conference filled with 3A/4A schools, but this is still a very difficult draw.

Pick: Lena-Winslow

Forreston vs. Ottawa Marquette: Forreston ripped off seven straight wins to start the season but dropped its final two games and scored just eight points in those two contests. But the Cardinals will likely be ready for Ottawa Marquette a team they have squared off against multiple times in recent playoff runs, most recently a 42-7 win for Forreston in 2019.

Pick: Forreston

Annawan-Wethersfield vs. Deer Creek-Mackinaw: Annawan-Wethersfield was one point away from a perfect regular season having lost 22-21 Stark County in Week 2. Since then the Flying Geese have been spectacular, particularly on defense, where they’ve allowed just 47 points of its last seven games. It’s been a season of streaks for Deer Creek-Mackinaw as it started the season with consecutive wins, lost four straight, and finished with three wins in a row.

Pick: Annawan-Wethersfield

Morrison vs. Fulton: Morrison pulled off one of the season’s more notable surprises by toppling Princeton on a late in the game field goal. It was denied a perfect regular season with a loss to Rockridge. Don’t be fooled by Fulton’s 6-3 record, the Steamers finished fourth in the loaded NUIC race and that’s nothing to sneeze at.

Pick: Fulton

Stark County vs. Princeville: Stark County squeaked into the playoffs last season, but left nothing to doubt this season going undefeated during the regular season and the Rebels were only seriously tested twice. This is a rematch of a Week 7 encounter where Stark County won comfortably, 48-28.

Pick: Stark County

Newman Central Catholic vs. ROWVA: Newman’s multiplier was removed which allows the Comets to play in the 1A field for the first time since 1999. ROWVA started 5-0 but only beat one team that ended up with a winning record during that stretch (Princeville) and was handled easily by the other two teams that had a winning mark on its schedule.

Pick: Newman Central Catholic

Hope Academy vs. St. Bede: Hope Academy has been a popular postseason pick in 1A over the last few years, but the fact remains that the Eagles have never advanced past the second round. This game gives Hope a chance to avenge a first round loss to St. Bede in the 2021 playoffs as the Bruins try to make Hope the first team all season that has won more than five games this year.

Pick: Hope Academy

Aurora Christian vs. GCMS: Aurora Christian’s high octane offense has only been slowed in two of its nine games this season as Wilmington and Wheaton Academy were able to shut it down but no one else has. GCMS’ defense might be up to the challenge as it hasn’t allowed more than 22 points to any opponent, including efforts in the Falcons three losses.

Pick: Aurora Christian

Camp Point Central vs. Red Hill: Last year’s Class 1A finalist has found very few deterrents on its way to an undefeated regular season, allowing double digit scoring to opponents just twice while winning all but one of its games by 30-plus points. Red Hill, an independent, hasn’t exactly earned a marquee win this season as the five teams it defeated combined for just nine wins on the year.

Pick: Camp Point Central

Heyworth vs. Hardin Calhoun: A classic 8-9 game here with a pair of teams that had some solid moments paired with some inconsistencies. Heyworth started the season a bit slow, but strung together some solid wins in the second half of the season. Hardin Calhoun started the season 2-3 but finished strong shutting out its last four opponents while putting up 186 points.

Pick: Hardin Calhoun

Althoff vs. Tuscola: Althoff played an independent schedule against significantly larger schools and only found real trouble once, a loss to St. Dominic, an undefeated team from Missouri. Tuscola’s going to have a better effort from its defense than it tends to get as the Warriors have allowed nearly 300 points this season.

Pick: Althoff

LeRoy vs. Villa Grove: LeRoy’s offense has been highly functional all season long with the exception of its lone loss when they dropped an 8-6 decision to GCMS for its only loss of the season. Villa Grove has a lot of grinder in it as almost every one of its games has been a bit of a dog fight, but the Blue Devils still haven’t demonstrated an ability to fully put the clamps down on defense.

Pick: LeRoy

Sesser-Valier vs. Carrollton: Sesser-Valier ran the table in the Black Diamond Conference but it wasn’t without a few adventures along the way. After a 5-0 start, Carrollton has apparently hit the wall. The Hawks have been outscored 168-26 during a four game slide to close the season.

Pick: Sesser-Valier

Salt Fork vs. West Central: Salt Fork has put together win streaks of three and four games this season and other than a 32-point outburst by Vermilion Valley Conference champion Momence, the Storm defense has been very, very sound. Each time West Central has been appeared poised to go on a run an undefeated team has stopped it in its tracks.

Pick: Salt Fork

Greenfield vs. Nokomis: Greenfield has scored at least 34 points in every game this season with the exception of one contest and seems to be peaking at the right time. Nokomis only split its last four games but played competitive games with the front-runners in the Lincoln Prairie Conference in both of those losses.

Pick: Greenfield

Casey-Westfield vs. Cumberland: Casey-Westfield is the smallest team in the Little Illini Conference but it certainly hasn’t allowed that to deter them. They’ve tossed four shutouts and allowed just 55 points all season. Cumberland has been all over the map this season, but it did manage to give undefeated Arthur its biggest fight all season.

Pick: Casey-Westfield