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When trying to project the IHSA playoff field, it’s pretty hard to argue more data on teams doesn’t help in making an accurate projection.
Sometimes, however, more data leads to more questions. One piece might clarify one question but lead to two more.
Many of the rabbit holes I’ve climbed down surround the conferences that have been newly developed such as the Chicagoland Christian, Chicagoland Prairie and Lincoln Trail/Prairieland.
How do new teams mesh with other teams they don’t have much of a history going against? Week 3 answered a few of those questions, but in some cases led to a major reevaluation of what the next six weeks will bring for schools destined to be riding the bubble between a five-win team that qualifies and a four-win team that is likely to be left out of the field.
Other issues have also emerged, such as trying to figure out how new teams fit in established conferences. Some leagues have added as few as one team, such as the Central Suburban League, which switched two teams to different divisions. Will Deerfield still stack up for a playoff spot in the stronger South Division? Does a softer schedule provide enough of a reprieve for Niles West to break through for a playoff spot? The projection says yes to both ... for now.
Week 3 also brought a full slate of CCL/ESCC games where its membership played one another. And the results didn’t do a great job of providing clarity. There are several teams I can see with six wins or six losses. Time seems to be the only thing that will help forecast that.
And there’s always the X factor with this projection: the Chicago Public League. Five CPL teams entered the projection this week and the enrollment variance among those new CPL schools along with the other new entrants (34 in all) led to the bubbles moving around once again.
We discussed programs such as Morris (now in 5A), Edwardsville (8A), Lake Zurich (7A) and Wilmington (3A) in regards to their closeness to the respective bubbles last week. All moved up a class from where they were projected a week ago.
Teams that made the strongest moves inside of the projection were Downers Grove North and Lincoln-Way Central in Class 7A, Geneseo in Class 5A, Montini in 3A and Momence in 2A.
Another reason for the classification shifts involved some of the teams in Class 1A. Extreme depth in the NUIC leads to questions as to who might snag one of the available berths or if attrition because of the league’s quality might lead to nobody with a whole bunch of teams accumulating more than four losses after running into one another. The Western Illinois Valley and Cahokia Conferences are two other leagues where three weeks of play haven’t provided a ton of clarity.
Two defending state champions in Decatur St. Teresa (Class 2A) and Nazareth (Class 5A) were removed from the projection this week. Both are 0-3 and face treacherous schedules the rest of the way, both would be candidates to make the field if four-win at-large teams are needed to fill the back end of the field, but even that may be an uphill climb.
The field did require the inclusion of two four-win teams to fill the 256 slots. Quincy Notre Dame and Glenbrook South were those two teams, both are projected to finish with 54 playoff points.
Here is the Week 3 playoff projection for all eight classes (below each bracket is more context on what happened in Week 3 that changed the make-up of the brackets):
Class 1A
Class 1A Enrollment Range: Up to 289.5
Largest 1A teams by enrollment: Cumberland, Althoff, Morrison, Fulton, Gibson City-Melvin Sibley
Smallest 2A teams by enrollment: Fieldcrest, Oakwood, Deer Creek-Mackinaw, Arthur, Bloomington Central Catholic
New teams in field:
| Team | Reason for Addition |
|---|---|
| Red Hill | Independent schedule is always a puzzle |
| Dupo | Cahokia Conference has proved tricky to decipher |
| Triopia | Western Illinois Valley Conference could produce multiple five win teams, or none |
| Galena | The middle pack of the NUIC is difficult to parse right now |
| GCMS | Notable win over El Paso-Gridley puts them back in Heart of Illinois mix |
| Moweaqua A&M | Win over St. Teresa moved them back into the discussion |
| ROWVA | Sorting out the Lincoln Trail/Prairieland has been complicated |
| Carrollton | Western Illinois Valley Conference could produce multiple five win teams, or none |
Class 2A
Class 2A Enrollment Range: 289.5 to 403.5
Largest 1A teams by enrollment: Cumberland, Althoff, Morrison, Fulton, Gibson City-Melvin Sibley
Smallest 2A teams by enrollment: Fieldcrest, Oakwood, Deer Creek-Mackinaw, Arthur, Bloomington Central Catholic
Largest 2A teams by enrollment: Dwight, Piasa Southwestern, Seneca, Marian Central Catholic, Athens
New teams in field:
| Team | Reason for addition |
|---|---|
| Breese Mater Dei | Notable win over Effingham helps independent |
| Dwight | Got pivotal win over Ridgewood in Chicagoland Prairie |
| Deer Creek Mackinaw | Moved up from Class 1A projection |
| Oakwood | Currently in front for a spot out of the Vermilion Valley |
| Lawrenceville | Little Illini team edges in front of a large group of teams |
| Fieldcrest | Win over Ridgeview moved them up in HOIC list |
| Piasa Southwestern | Close loss to Pana indicates they could make a run at slot in South Central |
Class 3A
Class 3A Enrollment Range: 406.5 to 542
Largest 2A teams by enrollment: Dwight, Piasa Southwestern, Seneca, Marian Central Catholic, Athens
Smallest 3A teams by enrollment: Nashville, Wilmington, Carlinville, Crane, Oregon
Largest 3A teams by enrollment: Greenville, Prairie Central, Paris, Roxana, Tolono Unity
New teams in field:
| Team | Reason for addition |
|---|---|
| Carlinville | Was in 2A |
| Military/Bronzeville | Tricky team to figure in the CPL |
| Genoa-Kingston | Earned what appears to be pivotal win over Oregon in Week 3 |
| Nashville | Was in 2A |
| North Boone | Big Northern Conference race is going to be complicated in middle |
| West Frankfort | S. Illinois River-to-River hard to read right now |
| Wilmington | Was in 2A |
| Crane | Was in 2A |
Class 4A
Class 4A Enrollment Range: 547.5 to 831
Largest 3A teams by enrollment: Greenville, Prairie Central, Paris, Roxana, Tolono Unity
Smallest 4A teams by enrollment: Phillips, Harrisburg, Dyett, Phoenix, Peoria Notre Dame
Largest 4A teams by enrollment: Waterloo, Agricultural Science, Ridgewood, Cahokia, Taylorville
New teams in field:
| New team | Reason for addition |
|---|---|
| Waterloo | Upgraded because of narrow loss to solid Missouri team (St. Mary’s) |
| Harrisburg | Was in 3A |
| Dyett | Was in 3A |
| Phillips | Was in 3A |
Class 5A
Class 5A Enrollment Range: 840.5 to 1270
Largest 4A teams by enrollment: Waterloo, Agricultural Science, Ridgewood, Cahokia, Taylorville
Smallest 5A teams by enrollment: Geneseo, Morris, Rochelle, Jacksonville, Evergreen Park
Largest 5A teams by enrollment: Peoria, Westinghouse, Prairie Ridge, LaSalle-Peru, Payton
New teams in field:
| Team | Reason for addition |
|---|---|
| Englewood STEM | Schedule might not have told us enough yet |
| Noble/Bulls Prep | Gave Simeon a good fight, might have enough to earn berth out of CPL Red |
| Noble/UIC | CPL White Central might be the most difficult league in state to parse |
| Geneseo | Was in 4A |
| Morris | Was in 4A |
| Mt. Vernon | South Seven teams are separated by very thin lines |
| Tinley Park | South Suburban league might take a few weeks to figure out |
Class 6A
Class 6A Enrollment Range: 1271.5 to 1773
Largest 5A teams by enrollment: Peoria, Westinghouse, Prairie Ridge, LaSalle-Peru, Payton
Smallest 6A teams by enrollment: Benet, Grayslake North, Antioch, Providence, Danville
Largest 6A teams by enrollment: Blue Island Eisenhower, Highland Park, Hubbard, Geneva, Mather
New teams in field:
| Team | Reason for additon |
|---|---|
| Benet | Was in 5A |
| Deerfield | 3-0 start sets them up well for new conference division |
| Oak Forest | Win over Bremen raised the Bengals stock |
| Grayslake North | This week’s game with Grayslake Central is almost a must |
Class 7A
Class 7A Enrollment Range: 1775.5 to 2255
Largest 6A teams by enrollment: Blue Island Eisenhower, Highland Park, Hubbard, Geneva, Mather
Smallest 7A teams by enrollment: Lake Zurich, Grant, Libertyville, Rockford Auburn, Willowbrook
Largest 7A teams by enrollment: Glenbard East, Downers Grove North, Prospect, Brother Rice, Larkin
New teams in field:
| Team | Reason for addition |
|---|---|
| Lake Zurich | Was in 6A |
| Grant | Was in 6A |
| Rockford Auburn | Large group of teams in middle of the NIC-10 need to sort out |
| Larkin | Figuring out fifth possible bid in Upstate Eight isn’t easy |
| Lincoln-Way Central | Stormed into conversation with impressive win over O’Fallon |
| St. Rita | Officially declared that they are “playing up” to 7A |
Class 8A
Class 8A Enrollment Range: 2307 and up
Largest 7A teams by enrollment: Glenbard East, Downers Grove North, Prospect, Brother Rice, Larkin
Smallest 8A teams by enrollment: Edwardsville, Glenbard West, Plainfield North, Maine South, St. Ignatius
New teams in field:
| Team | Reason for addition |
|---|---|
| Edwardsville | Was in 7A |
| Niles West | tough needle to thread but it looks possible out of the Central Suburban North |
| St. Ignatius | One of many CCL/ESCC teams who might end up anywhere on the spectrum |