Steve Soucie’s Week 7 playoff projection: High level of stability limits shakeups

There was so little movement in this week IHSA football playoff projection that I figured I had made some sort of massive mistake that needed to be corrected.

Ultimately, no major error had been made. Just eight new (or returning) teams were added to the draw this week, providing a level of stability inside the fields unlike anything I’ve ever seen for this late in the season.

There’s almost always a counterbalance move to something like this, so I’d expect a crazy Week 8 just to keep things interesting.

There was so much stability that two classifications (5A and 7A) saw no change to the members of their field, although some seeds did move.

Even where the new teams entered the field, there was usually a direct counterbalance that meant that the fields did not really shift much in terms of classifications bubbles.

Let’s take a look at the bubble spots for the most recently projected playoff field:

Ten of these teams are in exactly the same boxes they were a week ago, which shows how truly stable things were. The ranges still look wider than usual in Class 3A and 4A. With each week that goes by, it looks as if that may not be changing.

The most interesting development that came out of this week’s bubble watch was that Byron has slipped onto the bubble as the smallest school in 3A, while Richmond-Burton has taken that same position in Class 4A.

One small shift led to Edwardsville moving back into the Class 8A field, while Plainfield North is now the largest school in Class 7A. A small shift could move Plainfield North into the 8A field, which would remove what is currently projected to be the No. 1 seed in the Class 7A draw.

The teams that improved their situations the most this week were Morrison, Monticello and Fenwick. All picked up wins that at worst were toss-up games. Morrison routed Orion and essentially took its spot in the projection in the process. Monticello’s win over Paxton-Buckley-Loda assured that it wouldn’t need to upset at least one of the two conference frontrunners – Tolono Unity and Prairie Central – in Week 8 and Week 9.

Fenwick’s win over St. Patrick was much needed. The Friars will now get their fifth win this week via forfeit but had an ominous challenge in St. Ignatius looming in Week 9. The Week 7 win assures the defending Class 5A champion won’t face win-and-get-in scenario against the Wolfpack.

The projected field still needed eight four-win teams to fill the 256 slots. Only one of those eight teams is projected in the smaller classifications with Freeburg taking a spot in the 4A field. The other seven all come from the larger classifications, including a trio of teams in the potential Class 8A draw.

Here’s a look at each of the latest projections for the eight classifications: