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Multiple games around the state came down to the wire in a crazy Week 6 in IHSA football.
Outcomes turned on a dime in the final minute with teams both succeeding and failing to convert 2-point conversions.
Sometimes those results come between two teams that are ultimately going to make the playoffs regardless of how the game turns out.
Others, however, can have wildly sweeping consequences to teams on both sides of the ledger.
Joliet Catholic scored in the final minute of Friday night’s game with Marist to take the lead and then hung on for the victory when a Marist receiver was tackled inside the 10-yard line on the final play of the game. The Hilltoppers now need just one win to earn playoff eligibility instead of dropping to .500, but that final twist of fate put a big hurt on Marist’s playoff prospects . The Redhawks are now 1-5 and will only see a postseason berth if they run the table and are fortunate enough to be granted a reprieve as a four-win at-large team. That’s a tall order.
In two consecutive weeks the Western Illinois Valley Conference produced a pair of one-point decisions in the middle of its conference packs. Those results could be the difference between a 4-5 record and a 5-4 record for all four of the teams involved.
These really are the manifestation of coin flip games. If some of these teams were to play each other 10 times, each of them would probably win five.
Other games that affected the construction of this week’s projection were Wheaton Warrenville South toppling Wheaton North. The Tigers aren’t assured a spot because of the win but the path got clearer and likely means that this week’s game with Lake Park will decide if and how the DuKane Conference sends another team to the postseason.
Sterling’s win over Geneseo put the Golden Warriors firmly back in the postseason race. But its work isn’t done as it will still need a win over longtime rival Moline or an upset victory over Western Big Six favorite Quincy in the final three weeks of the season.
Two-point conversions also played a factor in how the middle of the pack of the Kishwaukee River/Interstate Eight Blue will sort out. Ottawa stopped a two-point conversion that would have led to a loss, while LaSalle-Peru didn’t get the stop in a similar situation. Both are 3-3 now. They play in Week 7 and each still have to deal with conference front runner Sycamore in one of their other two games. There’s absolutely no doubt that those 2-point conversions will weigh heavily on whether or not, one or none of them get into the dance.
Most of the instability resided right in the middle of the projected field with five changes in each the Class 4A and Class 5A fields. Class 1A and Class 7A were the most stable with only one field change in each classification.
In all, 15 new/returning schools were added into the projection. The source of many of those new teams was a need to add six four-win teams to the field to get to the required 256 qualifiers. Schools with high playoff points and a projected four wins were Glenbrook South, Quincy Notre Dame, Benet, Bolingbrook, Marist and Fieldcrest.
Here is the Week 6 playoff projection for all eight classes. (Included in Class 1A through 6A are north/south divisional maps and below each bracket is more context on what happened in Week 5 that changed the make-up of the brackets):
Class 1A
Class 1A Enrollment Range: Up to 303
Largest 1A teams by enrollment: Arthur, Oakwood, Fieldcrest, Cumberland, Althoff
Smallest 2A teams by enrollment: Bloomington Central Catholic, Momence, Chicago Christian, Tri-Valley, Illini West
New teams in field:
| Team added | Reason for addition |
|---|---|
| Arthur | Was in 2A |
Class 1A North/South Map
Class 2A
Class 2A Enrollment Range: 304.5 to 409.5
Largest 1A teams by enrollment: Arthur, Oakwood, Fieldcrest, Cumberland, Althoff
Smallest 2A teams by enrollment: Bloomington Central Catholic, Momence, Chicago Christian, Tri-Valley, Illini West
Largest 2A teams by enrollment: Wilmington, Nashville, Dwight, Seneca, Marian Central Catholic
New teams in the field:
| Team added | Reason for addition |
|---|---|
| Chester | Continues to recover from very difficult nonconference schedule |
| Hamilton County | Has tenuous hold on spot in middle of Black Diamond Conference |
| Quincy Notre Dame | Likely to finish with 4 wins, but flush with playoff points |
| Wesclin | Has two very good chances to snag fifth win |
Class 2A North/South Map
Class 3A
Class 3A Enrollment Range: 412 to 553
Largest 2A teams by enrollment: Wilmington, Nashville, Dwight, Seneca, Marian Central Catholic
Smallest 3A teams by enrollment: Carlinville, Crane/Oregon (same enrollment), Fairfield, Sherrard
Largest 3A teams by enrollment: Harrisburg, Phillips, Greenville, Benton, Prairie Central
New teams in field:
| Team added | Reason for addition |
|---|---|
| Benton | Upset win over Nashville gets them in |
| Phillips | Was in 4A |
| Harrisburg | Was in 4A |
Class 3A North/South Map
Class 4A
Class 4A Enrollment Range: 554.5 to 892
Largest 3A teams by enrollment: Harrisburg, Phillips, Greenville, Benton, Prairie Central
Smallest 4A teams by enrollment: Dyett, Phoenix, Peoria Notre Dame, Kewanee, Richmond-Burton
Largest 4A teams by enrollment: Evergreen Park, Rochelle, Centralia, Morris, St. Laurence
New teams in field:
| Team added | Reason for addition |
|---|---|
| Rochelle | Was in Class 5A |
| Evergreen Park | Was in Class 5A |
| Centralia | South Seven Conference difficult to figure |
| Noble/Rauner | Unclear how CPL plans to break ties |
| Lincoln | Jacksonville upset gets them in; could be first bid since 1984 |
Class 4A North/South Map
Class 5A
Class 5A Enrollment Range: 897.5 to 1363
Largest 4A teams by enrollment: Evergreen Park, Rochelle, Centralia, Morris, St. Laurence
Smallest 5A teams by enrollment: Highland, Corliss, Metamora, Carbondale, Noble/UIC
Largest 5A teams by enrollment: Centennial, Dunlap, Kaneland, Danville, Providence
New teams in field:
| Team added | Reason for addition |
|---|---|
| Centennial | Was in 6A |
| Dunlao | Was in 6A |
| Ottawa | Still a slippery path to a bid, but there is a path |
| Sterling | Victory over Geneseo could end up being huge |
| Triad | Middle of the pack in Mississippi Valley is muddled |
Class 5A North/South Map
Class 6A
Class 6A Enrollment Range: 1374.5 to 1819.95
Largest 5A teams by enrollment: Centennial, Dunlap, Kaneland, Danville, Providence
Smallest 6A teams by enrollment: Simeon, Lemont, Wauconda, Bremen, Lake View
Largest 6A teams by enrollment: Fenwick, Rockford Auburn, Libertyville, Grant, Lake Zurich
New teams in field:
| Team added | Reason for addition |
|---|---|
| Bremen | Has been a bumpy path in South Suburban |
| Lake View | Tiebreaker might muddle things but looks like a CPL Blue qualifier |
Class 6A North/South Map
Class 7A
Class 7A Enrollment Range: 1833 to 2322
Largest 6A teams by enrollment: Fenwick, Rockford Auburn, Libertyville, Grant, Lake Zurich
Smallest 7A teams by enrollment: Wheaton Warrenville South, Willowbrook, Quincy, Bradley-Bourbonnais, Batavia
Largest 7A teams by enrollment: Glenbard West, Edwardsville, Glenbard East, Downers Grove North, Prospect
New teams in field:
| Team added | Reason for addition |
|---|---|
| Wheaton Warrenville South | Toppling Wheaton North helped its stock considerably |
Class 8A
Class 8A Enrollment Range: 2351.5 and up
Largest 7A teams by enrollment: Glenbard West, Edwardsville, Glenbard East, Downers Grove North, Prospect
Smallest 8A teams by enrollment: Plainfield North, Maine South, St. Ignatius, Belleville East, Niles West
New teams in field:
| Team added | Reason for addition |
|---|---|
| Plainfield North | Was in 7A |
| Glenbrook South | If 4-win teams do get in, Glenbrook South will likely be at top of that list |