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Eye On Illinois: To establishment, U.S. Rep. Marie Newman more liability than asset

For establishment Democrats, Marie Newman was the right candidate at the right time. But that positioning had an expiration date.

Newman is in her first term representing Illinois’ Third Congressional District, a job she won comfortably after the heavy lifting of two tight primaries against eight-term U.S. Rep. Dan Lipinksi.

Lipinski’s sins against the party were many: He opposed abortion, same-sex marriage and the Affordable Care Act. He didn’t endorse Barack Obama’s presidential reelection bid in 2012. This after the party did him the favor of paving his way into office. Dan’s father, U.S. Rep. Bill Lipinski, had been in Congress since 1983. He won his 2004 primary, then announced his retirement and got Dan’s name on the ballot instead, although the younger Lipinski hadn’t lived in Illinois for 15 years and was teaching at the University of Tennessee while a candidate.

Back to Newman. In 2018 she became Lipinski’s first Democratic challenger since 2012. Unlike that contest, which Lipinski won 87.3-12.7, the 2018 primary was a nail-biter, decided by 2,145 votes. Newman returned in 2020, winning a plurality in a four-person primary, capturing 47.3% (52,384) to Lipinksi’s 44.7% (49,568).

Newman won her general election with 56.4% and, according to FiveThirtyEight, has always voted in line with President Joe Biden’s position. But when Democrats redrew Congressional maps last fall, Newman’s home was in the same district as Democratic U.S. Rep. Jesús “Chuy” García. She opted to enter the primary against fellow freshman U.S. Rep. Sean Casten.

While the new Sixth Congressional District contains 41% of Newman’s current district to just 23% of Casten’s current constituents, political winds strongly favor Casten. Many Newman voters in the new district once were Lipisnki loyalists. Casten also has more than double Newman’s campaign funds, according to recent disclosures.

But most importantly, only one incumbent is subject of an investigation by the House Committee on Ethics. In July, Newman settled a lawsuit with a man who alleged he signed a deal with Newman in December 2018 to work for her office, if she won in 2020, provided he didn’t enter the Democratic primary.

House General Counsel Douglas Letter admitted Newman signed the agreement, but said she was a private citizen at the time and shouldn’t be subject to a Congressional penalty. But this week the Office of Congressional Ethics said there is “substantial reason to believe” the allegation and recommended further review.

Neither Democrat is guaranteed victory in November, but the establishment is unlikely to endorse Newman given a plausible alternative. Candidates such as JB Pritzker and Tammy Duckworth need Casten on the ballot and might prefer Newman leave the race now.

Newman vanquished Lipinksi, but offers them little going forward they can’t find somewhere else.

• Scott T. Holland writes about state government issues for Shaw Media. Follow him on Twitter @sth749. He can be reached at sholland@shawmedia.com.

Scott Holland

Scott T. Holland

Scott T. Holland writes about state government issues for Shaw Media Illinois. Follow him on Twitter at @sth749. He can be reached at sholland@shawmedia.com.