Stockwell review: Lining up Oscar predictions for movie fans

April showers are supposed to bring May flowers – but what about April snow?

Stay in and watch a show?

OK, not too bad for a spur-of-the-moment joke, but I have to believe that the weather this time of year is about as unpredictable as the Oscars. Nevertheless, here are my predictions.

Coming up this weekend on ABC at 7 p.m. Sunday, April 25, the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences will hand out the annual “Oscars” celebrating the films of 2020. In this second of a two-part series (find the first article at tinyurl.com/z28j9rw9), I will look at the major categories, what are commonly referred to as the “Big Six.”

Our first category is actress in a leading role.

The nominees are Viola Davis (“Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom”); Andra Day (“The United States vs. Billie Holiday”); Vanessa Kirby (“Pieces of a Woman”); Frances McDormand (“Nomadland”); Cary Mulligan (“Promising Young Woman”).

Of the major categories, this is one that often is the most diversified. From 2000 on, there has been a new winner every single year, and only two ladies (Hilary Swank and Frances McDormand) earned their second Oscar in that time span. The talented women in this year’s pool are excellent. Davis is a rare triple-crown winner (an Oscar, Emmy and a Tony). Mulligan has been nominated twice, and McDormand could get her third Oscar, but I think this is Kirby’s year.

Who should win? Kirby

Who will win? Kirby

Sleeper? Day or Mulligan

Anyone missing? Where’s Meryl? She is the all-time leader in nominations. She was in two comedies this year with typically great performances and is the best in the business.

Staying with the ladies, best actress in a supporting role.

The nominees are Maria Bakalova (“Borat Subsequent Moviefilm”); Glenn Close (“Hillbilly Elegy”); Olivia Colman (“The Father”); Amanda Seyfried (“Mank”); Yuh-Jung Youn (“Minari”).

Much like best actress, the category has a greatly varied group of winners; only two women, Dianne Wiest and Shelley Winters, have ever won two of these awards. All the performances are good and well done, but it is time for Close to finally win one. She is way overdue.

Who should win? Close

Who will win? Close

Sleeper? Youn

Anyone missing? Kristen Wiig, (“Wonder Woman 1984″). Seriously, she transformed from a nerd to a mutant right before our eyes. Great versatility from a very talented comedian.

Best actor in a leading role.

The nominees are Riz Ahmed (“Sound of Metal”); Chadwick Boseman (“Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom”); Anthony Hopkins (“The Father”); Gary Oldman (“Mank”); Steven Yeun (“Minari”).

This one is always a big debate because you are talking about big dogs and new kids on the block. This year, two former winners (Hopkins and Oldman) versus three first-time nominees. Boseman was good and is a sentimental favorite because he passed on last year; Peter Finch and Heath Ledger are the only posthumous winners. And Hopkins is the oldest nominee. But for pure performance, it’s Ahmed hands down.

Who should win? Ahmed

Who will win? Hopkins or Boseman

Sleeper? Oldman or Yeun

Anyone missing? Charlie Plummer (“Words on Bathroom Walls”). Playing a teenager suffering from being a teenager is tough enough, but playing one with schizophrenia? He was lights-out fantastic and should have received at least a nomination for a very believable performance.

The final acting award is the best actor in a supporting role.

The nominees are Sacha Baron Cohen (“The Trial of the Chicago 7″); Daniel Kaluuya (“Judas and the Black Messiah”); Leslie Odom Jr. (“One Night in Miami … ”); Paul Raci (“Sound of Metal”); LaKeith Stanfield (“Judas and the Black Messiah”).

Over the years, eight men have won two, with Walter Brennan the only three-time winner. It’s a category where the academy is not afraid to vote in performances that are wide-ranging. Kevin Kline, Jack Palance, Tommy Lee Jones and Cuba Gooding Jr. all had more comedic performances, while Javier Bardem, Ledger and Christoph Waltz were villains. This one is wide open, so really anything can happen. I will go with Kaluuya, though Odom might be “twistin’ the night away” as crooner Sam Cooke.

Who should win? Kaluuya

Who will win? Anyone

Sleeper? Odom and Cohen

Anyone missing? Hugh Grant (“The Gentlemen”). His performance of a weaseling screenwriter was beyond entertaining. He is so underappreciated; a nomination here would have helped rectify the oversight of a wonderful actor.

The next-to-last is a biggie, achievement in directing, or best director.

Nominees are Thomas Vinterberg (“Another Round”); David Fincher (“Mank”); Lee Isaac Chung (“Minari”); Chloe Zhao (“Nomadland”); Emerald Fennell (“Promising Young Woman”).

Over the years, this is an award that generally comes with best picture, but it has shifted slightly over the last decade or so. This time, four of the five nominees are first-timers who also wrote the films they directed, and, other than Vinterberg, all look for the big prize. Another blindfolded guess, but if we really think about it, third time is the charm for Fincher.

Who should win? Fincher

Who will win? Fincher

Sleeper? Zhao

Anyone missing? Former Oscar winners. For the first time in more than a decade, the category has no former winners. This is most likely because some of the heavy-hitters held some of the major films out of theaters, but still an interesting development.

And last, but certainly not least, is best picture.

Nominees are “The Father,” “Judas and the Black Messiah,” “Mank,” “Minari,” “Nomadland,” “Promising Young Woman,” “Sound of Metal” and “The Trial of the Chicago 7.”

The unique group of films ranges from “based on a true story” to thought-provoking “odysseys.” We see films that reflect diversification in either cast or crew. The year was far from normal, so theatrical releases and streamed films are well represented. Despite their variety of subjects, I believe this year will go to a film based on a film for the film industry’s biggest prize.

Who should win? “Mank”

Who will win? “Judas” or “Mank”

Sleeper? “Nomadland”

Anyone missing? No. Actually, this category is the only one I disagree with in overall composition. In 2009, after snubbing Christopher Nolan’s masterpiece “The Dark Knight” the year before, the academy increased the number of nominations from the standard five to 10 (though the 1930s and ’40s did see eight to 12 nominees). Personally, I think the category is a little watered down, not because the films are not good, just that it takes away the exclusiveness of a nomination. It is the only category with more than five, and it feels like that is too many.

Happy viewing – we’ll talk again next week!

• Jim Stockwell is a tenured instructor of film and broadcast journalism at McHenry County College, teaching Introduction to Film, Advanced Film and Introduction to Public Speaking.