The 2022 election will feature a familiar dynamic for incumbent U.S. Rep. Lauren Underwood, but this time with a different political – and physical – terrain.
Underwood first won a seat in Congress in 2018 during a wave election for Democrats due to a backlash from many suburban voters to the presidency of Republican Donald Trump. She defeated then-incumbent Randy Hultgren for his seat in the 14th District, which spanned several collar counties from McHenry County to the northwest tip of Will County.
When Underwood ran for reelection in 2020, a slew of Republican candidates lined up to compete for the chance to challenge her and flip the seat back into GOP hands. Underwood narrowly defeated businessman Jim Oberweis as Democrats barely held on to power in Congress.
This year, several Republicans are again hoping to defeat Underwood in November.
But in 2022, Underwood faces not only a new district with a new electorate but also potentially significant political headwinds, as Republicans are widely expected to recapture the House. Recent history shows that the party that loses the presidency tends to be successful in the next midterm election.
The race for the 14th District again could act as something of a microcosm for the larger political mood of a deeply divided electorate.
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The new district
The new 14th District boundaries stretch across a large territory from the western suburbs to more rural areas in north-central Illinois. It includes parts of Kane, Will, DeKalb, Kendall, LaSalle, Bureau and Putnam counties.
Although it encompasses rural areas that have elected Republican candidates to state and federal offices, the inclusion of Joliet in Will County could help Underwood.
The new district includes most of Joliet, Shorewood, Plainfield and parts of Romeoville. Joliet, at about 150,000 residents, is the third most populous city in the state and routinely sends Democrats to Springfield and Washington, D.C.
Despite the new flock of sympathetic voters, research shows that midterm elections tend to have lower voter turnout compared with presidential elections. The 2018 race saw higher-than-normal turnout, helping Democrats such as Underwood win office, but that was at a time when liberal and moderate voters were especially motivated by the policies of the Trump administration and Republican control of Congress.
Historical trends would point toward Republican voters being the more motivated faction in 2022 after the election of Democrat Joe Biden. Worsening inflation has contributed to Biden’s low approval ratings, typically bad signs for the president’s party ahead of a midterm election.
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The Republican candidates
Six candidates are running for the Republican nomination and the opportunity to challenge Underwood:
• Scott Gryder of Oswego is the chairman of the Kendall County Board and a licensed attorney. He’s also been involved in local politics as the previous chair of the Kendall County Republican Central Committee and Kendall County GOP PAC.
• Michael Koolidge of Rochelle is an Army veteran and hosted a syndicated conservative radio program, “The Michael Koolidge Show,” for 14 years. His biography described him as a “lifelong conservative” who’s also served as a Republican precinct committeeman for more than a decade.
• Jack Lombardi of Manhattan owns a digital marketing company. He initially announced a challenge to Rep. Adam Kinzinger, R-Channahon, over his objection to Trump’s false assertions of election fraud. Lombardi also has spoken out against COVID-19 mitigations such as mask mandates.
• James Marter of Oswego has been a perennial candidate for office and lost in the GOP primary for the 14th District in 2020. He’s twice been elected the chairman of the Kendall County Republicans and serves on the Oswego Library District Board.
• Jaime Milton of Fox River Grove has had a career in manufacturing and information technology over 25 years. She touted her conservative stances on the Second Amendment and on “reduced and transparent government spending” in a biography.
• Susam Starrett of North Aurora served as a Kane County Board member before being hired to work in the Kane County Clerk’s Office. She also is the chief financial officer of Starrett Medical Association, a family medical practice in Aurora.
Gryder, Koolidge, Lombardi and Starrett, along with Underwood, all are facing objections to their petitions to get on the ballot. If a petition objection is upheld, a candidate can be disqualified from running for a political party nomination.
The Illinois State Board of Elections will hear the objection cases.