Kane Treasurer Lauzen’s financial forecasting quiz spurs little interest

GENEVA – The questions seemed to ask participants to gaze into a financial crystal ball: What will the S&P 500 index return in 2023, including dividends? What will happen in Washington, D.C.? When will the Federal Reserve pivot and cut the key funds rate?

Those are some of the questions included in a Jan. 24 letter from Kane County Treasurer Chris Lauzen to 47 elected officials and department heads. His emailed letter also included a copy of Barron’s financial forecasting challenge for them to complete.

The questions – 17 of them – put out by financial investment publication Barron’s, are part of an annual January forecasting challenge to its readers, with a winner named in January 2024, according to its website, www.barrons.com.

Lauzen’s letter also offered a Treasurer’s Traveling Trophy for the respondent who scored the highest.

“Of course, I will be personally contributing the funds needed to create the traveling trophy, so I get to design it,” Lauzen stated in an email to the Kane County Chronicle.

The trophy won’t have far to go. Only Kane County Assessor Mark Armstrong responded to the challenge, according to Lauzen.

“It was a little fun thing to do and that’s the beginning and the end of it,” Armstrong said.

For his part, Lauzen stated in an email that sending out Barron’s challenge was “to to sharpen skills and focus our attention on financial influences that impact policies and our constituents’ lives.”

“The intention is to celebrate success and improvement, not potentially embarrass any participant who ‘tried’ but didn’t place first this time,” Lauzen’s email stated. “No one has passed a law yet or threatened a tax increase if we have fun and grow wiser while we do our work, so. … So, that’s about it.”

Three of Lauzen and Armstrong’s answers to the 17 Barron’s quiz questions matched.

About what would happen in Washington, D. C., both chose C, that the Supreme Court would nix Biden’s student-loan forgiveness plan.

The other choices were A. Former President Trump is indicted; B. President Biden says he won’t seek re-election in 2024; D. Justice Clarence Thomas retires from the Supreme Court; E. None of the above.

About which asset class will fare best in 2023, both chose C, International stocks, EAFE index – both passing on cash, U.S. stocks, Commodities and U.S. bonds.

As to when will the Federal Reserve pivot and cut the key funds rate, Lauzen and Armstrong chose C, Not at all, passing on the first half of 2023 and the second half of 2023.

The rest of Barron’s 2023 challenge is available at www.barrons.com.

The publication did not respond to an email requesting comment on Lauzen using its challenge.