Scoreboard watching: Big games can be found in other places than the ranks of undefeated

There’s a fair amount of attention attached to the games in Week 6 that feature teams with either spotless of near spotless records.

It’s certainly warranted and not surprising. I’ll be spending quite a bit of my time tracking those big matchups as well.

But just as much, if not more so, I’ll be tracking other games, the games that will likely help set the back end of the field of 256 playoff qualifying teams and the teams that will ultimately decide where classification breaks ultimate fall.

Each week until the conclusion of the regular season, I will attempt to place the spotlight on some of these games and explain why they are essential in the grand scheme of things.

First, let’s take a look at a state wide overview of where we stand right now.

The 54 teams at the top of the chart have become eligible for playoff qualification and based on early returns five wins is likely all you are going to need.

It looks increasingly difficult for this group of 491 playoff eligible programs to produce a group of 256 or more teams with records above the .500 mark. We enter Week 6 with 252 teams above the .500 mark. Obviously, that’s not 256.

We’ll likely head into Week 7 around the following numbers. 45-to-50 teams that have clinched berths with their six victory, another group of around 70 teams that have become playoff eligible and another group of around 75 to 80 teams that will manage to stay above the .500 mark. (There’s a substantial amount of three-win teams that will likely drop to the .500 mark because either they are playing another three-win team or playing a team with a better record).

Even the most positive estimates would leave us around 200 teams still above the .500 mark, well short of the 256. But the three-win group will grow significantly to probably around 150 teams at the end of six weeks.

But every one of those teams in that three-win group will have to go at least 2-1 over their remaining three games just to get to playoff eligibility. Some certainly will, and a few of them will manage to run the table, but a lot of them won’t. And while there’s a path to still get 256 teams to finish above the .500 mark, it is going to take a lot of teams threading difficult needles to get us there.

Additionally, all hope isn’t lost for teams that find themselves at 2-4. There’s always a small handful of teams that buck the odds and win their final three games and reach playoff eligibility.

What does all this mean? If we don’t get to 256 with five-win teams, four-win teams will be needed to fill the field. If there’s just a few, it will have a limited effect on class breaklines, but considering it could be as many as 10 (or even 15) that’s when the lines become a lot more blurry and more chaotic.

And that’s when the scoreboard watching comes into play.

Class 8A

Projected enrollment range: 2317 and up

Schools that fall in that enrollment range: 55

Projected schools closest to 8A line (closest to farthest): Edwardsville, Conant, Glenbard West.

Schools in that range that are already playoff eligible: 7

Schools in that range that already have five losses: 7

The classifications at the top of the list (Class 1A) and the bottom of the list (Class 8A) are the most stable of the group because they are less reliant on the other classifications in determine where the breaklines fall.

But that doesn’t mean they are super stable either. Class 8A’s biggest variable if 4-win teams are ultimately invited to the field, because the 4-win at-large teams usually end up coming from the larger classifications.

Games to monitor this week in Class 8A:

Lockport (3-2) vs. Lincoln-Way West (3-2): The defending Class 8A State Champions have hit some bumps in the road the last few weeks in losses to Sandburg and Homewood-Flossmoor, now make this game fairly pivotal. The Porters still have remaining challenges with Bolingbrook and Lincoln-Way East on their schedule. If they don’t get to five wins, despite a super strong conference schedule, a non-conference slate of opponents that have combined for just two wins to date doesn’t help their cause.

Hoffman Estates (3-2) vs. Barrington (2-3): It’s hard to write off Barrington, but this game looks like a must for the Broncos. An absolutely brutal nonconference schedule left them 0-3, and although it has climbed back, there’s still a pair of four-win teams remaining on their slate over the back third of its schedule. A loss would require they win both of them just to get to playoff eligibility.

Minooka (4-1) vs. Oswego East (4-1): Both of these schools look to be in fine shape considering they need just one win each to obtain playoff eligibility. But it isn’t as easy as it seems, both teams still have to face both of the two schools that are the favored squads in the Southwest Prairie West (Plainfield North and Yorkville) over the final three weeks of the season.

Class 7A

Projected enrollment range: 1832 to 2316

Schools that fall in that enrollment range: 57

Projected schools closest to 8A line (closest to farthest): Plainfield North, Glenbard East, Brother Rice.

Projected schools closest to 6A line (closest to farthest): Libertyville, Geneva, Collinsville.

Schools in that range that are already playoff eligible: 5

Schools in that range that already have five losses: 5

This class might do a fairly good job of sorting itself. Lots of teams have already been saddled with quite a few losses and the cream seems to be rising to the top. That being said, this is another field that could end up with a healthy amount of four-win teams landing in its midst if they are indeed needed to fill the field

Games to monitor this week in Class 7A:

Highland Park (3-2) vs. Deerfield (2-3): Highland Park has a leg up in the race in the Central Suburban North as it is the only team above .500 in the league. But the Giants have played one of the softest schedules in the state to date and Deerfield really needs to collect this win in order to avoid putting themselves on the brink of elimination for playoff consideration.

Plainfield Central (2-3) vs. Plainfield East (2-3): There’s not a single team in the Southwest Prairie East that owns an above .500 record and the league does not seem to have a clean front runner. Someone will earn a bid in this league as the conference champ, but it might end up being a team that wins a tiebreaker with less than five wins unless someone gets on a roll.

Elgin Larkin (2-3) vs. East Aurora (1-4): Can anyone help me sort out the middle of the pack in the Upstate Eight? No, seriously. I need help. This closed conference is rapidly approaching a scenario where it might not be able to send more than four teams to the postseason as the middle of the pack might all ended up pinning each other with enough losses that none of the fifth place candidates can get to five wins.

Class 6A

Projected enrollment range: 1347 to 1818.5

Schools that fall in that enrollment range: 53

Projected schools closest to 7A line (closest to farthest): Guilford, DeKalb, Lake Zurich

Projected schools closest to 5A line (closest to farthest): Grayslake Central, Centennial, Washington

Schools in that range that are already playoff eligible: 5

Schools in that range that already have five losses: 5

There’s an awful lot of teams in this classification that already find themselves at two or three losses, which means things could get pretty tight for those seeking bids here. It also likely means that early home games will likely be assigned to some programs that might be surprised to find themselves getting one with two or three losses on the ledger.

Games to monitor this week in Class 6A:

Hinsdale South (2-3) vs. Downers Grove South (2-3): There’s no team really stepping up to try to control the West Suburban Gold, but this game has a little more weight on Hinsdale South’s playoff fortunes. DGS already has a win over the conference’s long time stronghold Willowbrook in its pocket, while if Hinsdale South lost this game, beating Willowbrook would become a must-win as would every other game on its schedule with relatively low playoff points holding them down.

Crystal Lake South (3-2) vs. Crystal Lake Central (2-3): Crystal Lake South’s surprising loss to Burlington Central sort of offsets an earlier win this season by the Gators over Cary-Grove. If Crystal Lake South isn’t able to regroup here, the Fox Valley is another league that might end up sending one less team than usual to the postseason because of an inability to get a fifth team to a fifth win.

Lake Forest (2-3) vs. Stevenson (2-3): It’s strange to see both of these programs struggling to keep in contact with the .500 mark, but this game is particularly important for Lake Forest as both Lake Zurich and Warren still lurk in the final third of its schedule.

Class 5A

Projected enrollment range: 974.5 to 1338.5

Schools that fall in that enrollment range: 57

Projected schools closest to 6A line (closest to farthest): Prairie Ridge, Simeon, Amundsen

Projected schools closest to 4A line (closest to farthest): Metamora, Noble/Pritzker, Sterling

Schools in that range that are already playoff eligible: 5

Schools in that range that already have five losses: 8

A similar situation is also evolving in Class 2A, but the fact that nearly double digit teams in this classification have already racked up five losses on the season means that 5A is zeroing in on the identity of its probable teams a little faster than most. Some teams that typically find themselves in the 6A field are trending toward 5A because of that fact as well.

Games to monitor this week in Class 5A:

Marian Catholic (3-2) vs. St. Viator (3-2): Both of these teams really need to claim win No. 4 because of the gauntlet the remainder of their schedules certainly provide. Even with the win, neither team has a clear path to a fifth win but the odds increase exponentially for either team if they only need one win over their last three rather than two.

Decatur MacArthur (3-2) vs. Springfield (2-3): Both of these two programs have recently been playoff staples behind the Central State Eight’s “Big Three” in Sacred Heart Griffin, Rochester and Glenwood. But Springfield’s loss to Jacksonville in Week 5 puts that in jeopardy as the Senators also still have a game with Glenwood left to deal with as well.

Woodstock (2-3) vs. LaSalle-Peru (3-2): The middle of the pack in the Kishwaukee River/Interstate Eight looks fairly even, but one of these two teams will get a chance to separate themselves from the middle pack a bit.

Class 4A

Projected enrollment range: 641 to 943.5

Schools that fall in that enrollment range: 57

Projected schools closest to 5A line (closest to farthest): Mahomet-Seymour, Jacksonville, Goode.

Projected schools closest to 3A line (closest to farthest): Carterville, Quincy Notre Dame, Freeburg.

Schools in that range that are already playoff eligible: 5

Schools in that range that already have five losses: 6

The projected enrollment gap in 4A is much different than it usually is and there’s a combination of reason as to why. One of the undercurrents of it is the fact that there are just 22 playoff eligible schools with enrollments between 700 and 800 and most are not operating at a playoff worthy clip right now. Only one team is undefeated in that group (Hyde Park) and two are at 4-1 (Rochester and Mount Zion) as such school’s with higher enrollments are being pushed into the 4A field to fill open spots.

Games to monitor this week in Class 4A:

Herrin (1-4) vs. Massac County (2-3): Herrin’s inclusion on this list might seem strange. But those four losses came to quality teams with a 16-4 combined record. The schedule softens for the Tigers a bit from here on out, but a win here, and every other game for that matter, is a must for them.

Dixon (3-2) vs. Rockford Lutheran (3-2): It’s odd to see a Week 6 game that might actually end up being a win to get in type of situation, but that might be what we have here. Stillman Valley, Byron and Genoa-Kingston look well positioned to claim the first three spots likely available to Big Northern teams. Winnebago’s Week 5 win over Dixon has given them the inside track to the fourth slot, so the winner here very well could be playing for the last slot the conference has to give.

Cahokia (2-3) vs. Centralia (4-1): A tale of two schedules here. Cahokia played a beast of a nonconference schedule and recorded some losses because of it. Centralia has taken the opposite route, playing a less than stellar slate and sometimes struggling to net wins against some of those foes. It’s actually sort of a must win for both teams considering the hurdles Centralia has on its remaining slate.

Class 3A

Projected enrollment range: 449.5-628.5

Schools that fall in that enrollment range: 66

Projected schools closest to 4A line (closest to farthest): Columbia, Richmond-Burton, Breese Central.

Projected schools closest to 2A line (closest to farthest): St. Joseph-Ogden, Winnebago, Carlinville.

Schools in that range that are already playoff eligible: 11

Schools in that range that already have five losses: 4

There’s a lot of schools in this enrollment range and oddly there’s also a lot of undefeated teams in the grouping that are shaping a large chunk of how the bracket might ultimately look. 3A is the only class that doesn’t have a very large group of teams floating with two or three losses right now, most teams are clumping at the very top of very bottom of the spectrum.

Games to monitor this week in Class 3A:

Montini (3-2) vs. Providence (3-2): The anthem of a number of teams in the CCL/ESCC is being played out here. Every game is absolutely critical for the teams in the league in the quest to get to five wins. Odds are very strong that if four win teams end up being admitted to the field, CCL/ESCC teams will be at the front of that line, in this case Providence (who is skewing toward 4A if qualified) is one of the most likely to reach the playoffs in this fashion, but both teams would rather not roll the dice on that scenario.

Roxana (3-2) vs. Freeburg (3-2): The Cahokia Mississippi has five of its six teams with at least three wins right now, but none with five. That’s going to make for a bunch of interesting matchups over the next three conference weeks (they play nonconference games in Week 9) and odds are a few good teams from this league will be left without a slot.

Piasa Southwestern (2-3) vs. Carlinville (2-3): The South Central conference is a jumble in the middle and both of these teams look to be on the outside looking in regarding the top few spots of the league. This is likely a situation where the winner here has a path, but still a rocky one, and the loser is close to eliminated from the chase.

Class 2A

Projected enrollment range: 326 to 438

Schools that fall in that enrollment range: 61

Projected schools closest to 3A line (closest to farthest): Durand-Pecatonica, Seneca, Elmwood.

Projected schools closest to 1A line (closest to farthest): Arthur, Clifton Central, Deer Creek-Mackinaw.

Schools in that range that are already playoff eligible: 7

Schools in that range that already have five losses: 10

This is the classification with the smallest range in student enrollment (just over 100 students) and the one that has the largest contingent of teams that are trending toward not being playoff eligible. The class already has double digit teams with five losses and a substantial group of teams with four missteps. That makes for some clarity at the top and also seems to make this the only class that likely will a majority of its 7-2 teams hitting the road in the opening round.

Games to monitor this week in Class 2A:

Breese Mater Dei (2-3) vs. DuQuoin (2-3): As an independent, Mater Dei plays a schedule that doesn’t always suit their needs in terms of having a clear path to the postseason. This looks like a relatively even matchup for both teams that really need it to keep playoffs hopes intact.

Westville (3-2) vs. Oakwood (2-3): The South division of the Vermilion Valley Conference is definitely deeper than its counterpart this season which makes this game pivotal for both of these teams should they want to find themselves in the 2A (Westville) or 1A (Oakwood) fields.

Orion (3-2) vs. Monmouth (2-3): Both of these two Three Rivers Conference foes have a forfeit win to claim on their schedules and Orion has already received its win. (Monmouth’s will come in Week 7). While that forfeit win is good for the ledger, it is bad for the the playoff point scenario of each of these teams so stacking wins becomes more essential.

Class 1A

Projected enrollment range: Up to 321.5

Schools that fall in that enrollment range: 70

Projected schools closest to 2A line (closest to farthest): Bloomington Central Catholic, Shelbyville, Athens.

Schools in that range that are already playoff eligible: 7

Schools in that range that already have five losses: 9

It’s not uncommon that 1A has the largest contingent of schools that fit in the projected enrollment class break. Typically this is where you find a larger number of schools that are struggling to stack wins because they are often forced to play larger schools just to fill their schedules. There’s still quite a bit of depth at the top of the bracket though.

Corliss (2-3) vs. Carver (3-1): One of many Chicago Public League conferences that are tough to sort out. At some point, Corliss is going to have to pick off a win against a program with a winning record if it wants a place. Carver only gets eight chances to earn a win this season as its Week 1 game was declared a no-contest as it couldn’t be completed when scheduled.

Carlyle (2-3) vs. Chester (2-3): One team, Red Bud, has broken away from the pack in the Cahokia Illinois Conference, leaving the other squads to try to scrap for what looks like could possibly be only one other bid.

Sesser-Valier (4-1) vs. Eldorado (2-3): Eldorado doesn’t typically find itself in this situation in the Black Diamond Conference race, but the closed conference seems to be a little deeper than usual. As such, a scenario might be developing where the conference might have its losses spread around in a way that only four teams reach the five wins needed to become playoff eligible (Closed conferences usually produce five bids).