Steve Soucie’s Week 3 playoff projection: Visible shifts in classification breaks appear

A little bit more stability filtered its way into the projection this week with 27 new teams entering the field.

That number should slowly decrease each week (as it did from last week when 34 new teams took spaces, but whenever new teams are added to the field, it’s important to figure out where they fall on the enrollment board.

This is probably the last week where you will see substantial shifts on the classification breaks happening. That’s largely due to the fact that most of the conferences are starting to establish a pecking order. Upsets will occur, both major and minor, but for the most part each conference won’t see massive swings of teams going in and out of the projection.

That, however, was still happening this week. The Little Illini, Cahokia and Northern Illinois were conferences where the pecking order was still evolving. Those conferences might land another playoff qualifier or lose one based on how things filter out in the middle of the pack in each conference.

Those conferences, and several others, also have an added wrinkle of having programs from several different classifications. So if one team replaces another in the projection, it doesn’t always mean that it’s just a simple swap out with a team from one classification for another team from the same classification.

For example, 1A saw seven new teams either enter the projection for the first time or shift down into 1A from 2A, so the line logically changed between where 1A/2A previously stood. The same goes for Class 8A, where six schools were swapped in. Conversely, there was almost no change in 6A, as just two schools were move in and two others shifted classification, with one going down to 7A and one going up to 5A to make room.

The bubble spot between the classification splits all saw some sort of movement. The most intriguing one this week came in Class 4A, on both ends of the spectrum. Sacred Heart-Griffin has actually moved relatively close to the 3A/4A bubble. Joliet Catholic has as well, but the Hilltoppers have a waiver to play-up, which guarantees them a spot in the 4A field. On the other end, Providence Catholic is currently the largest qualifier in 4A. Providence hasn’t played in a 4A field since 1997, when the state was still in a six-classification playoff system rather than eight.

Morris is also on the fence sitting as the smallest school in 5A. And on the back end of the 5A field, in the two largest positions, are two schools typically associated with Class 6A, Simeon and Prairie Ridge.

Speaking of Providence, it is one of seven schools projected in despite not being projected to reach the five-win plateau. The Celtics, like the other six schools that are slated to make the field, benefit from their strong schedules in this scenario. The final school in this projected field, Stark County, is projected to finish with 46 playoff points.

How likely is it that a non-five win team or teams actually achieve an at-large berth?

There are currently just 244 playoff-eligible teams with two wins or better in the state. Any team from the group of teams that has a 1-2 record currently, must go 4-2 or better the rest of the way just to get to the five-win plateau. There are some heavy hitters in that 1-2 group (East St. Louis, St. Rita, Nazareth, Glenbard North, Wheaton Warrenville South and Crete-Monee, to name a few) and that 4-2 mark will certainly be achieved by some, but there’s also no guarantee that all the squads currently with a 2-1 record will go 3-2 or better the rest of the way either.

Odds are that issue won’t be resolved until the final day of the season, but there are a lot of indicators the situation will need to be very closely monitored over the final six weeks.