Soucie: Week 5 playoff projection

It was moving week for a number of schools in regards to playoff projection.

Some of the more substantial upsets (Kewanee, St. Ignatius) led to massive seed switches, which changed the landscape of some brackets.

As always, one of the more interesting watches is where the break line between classes sits. Wilmington keeps bouncing back and forth between 2A and 3A either as the largest Class 2A school or the smallest Class 3A school, while Rochester is doing the same between 4A and 5A.

In fact, there are lots of interesting teams hovering around the break points in nearly every class. It certainly merits a hard watch as we head down the stretch.

Twenty-one teams were added to the field this week either as newcomers or returners from previous projections. Many of the 21 are from the Chicago Public League, where the only thing that seems to be consistent is that each week brings more chaos.

The number of 4-5 teams projected to make the field dropped to six this week. I’m still very confident, however, that at least some teams will make the field as four-win, at-large teams. As long as the number holds at around 10 teams, the majority of the teams that earn bids as 4-5 teams will likely be teams from larger classifications.

This projection does include IC Catholic’s Monday declaration that it will “play up” to Class 3A. IC Catholic’s enrollment number would have likely placed it in the field as a small Class 2A school, with a remote chance of the Knights landing in the Class 1A as a larger 1A school.

Here’s a look at all eight classes with the final four weeks projected to make up the 256-team playoff field. Maps are provided for Class 1A through 6A to see where the north/south dividing line could break. Class 7A and Class 8A are not divided into geographic groups.

Class 8A

Class 8A Playoff Projection
(32) Plainfield South	at	(1) Loyola
(17) Marist	at	(16) Taft
(25) New Trier	at	(8) Warren
(24) Naperville North	at	(9) Lockport
(29) Downers Grove South	at	(4) Neuqua Valley
(20) O’Fallon	at	(13) Bolingbrook
(28) East Aurora	at	(5) Oswego East
(21) Bartlett	at	(12) Plainfield North
(31) Edwardsville	at	(2) South Elgin
(18) Naperville Central	at	(15) York
(26) Barrington	at	(7) Maine South
(23) Oswego	at	(10) Glenbrook South
(30) Huntley	at	(3) Glenbard West
(19) Homewood-Flossmoor	at	(14) Hinsdale Central
(27) Evanston	at	(6) Lincoln-Way East
(22) Rich Township	at	(11) Palatine

New Teams in Class 8A Field

Team	Reason
Evanston	Win over New Trier pivotal in putting it on track.
Naperville North	Just taking care of business in DuPage Valley.

Class 7A

Class 7A Playoff Projection
(32) Lincoln-Way West	at	(1) Batavia
(17) Collinsville	at	(16) Moline
(25) Downers Grove North	at	(8) Plainfield North
(24) Willowbrook	at	(9) Glenbard North
(29) Blue Island Eisenhower	at	(4) Normal Community
(20) Jacobs	at	(13) Glenbard East
(28) Libertyville	at	(5) Wheaton North
(21) Pekin	at	(12) Prospect
(31) Rolling Meadows	at	(2) Hersey
(18) Mt. Carmel	at	(15) Buffalo Grove
(26) Shepard	at	(7) Brother Rice
(23) Thornwood	at	(10) T.F. South
(30) Lake Zurich	at	(3) Hononegah
(19) Geneva	at	(14) Hoffman Estates
(27) Reavis	at	(6) Plainfield Central
(22) Whitney Young	at	(11) St. Rita

New Teams in Class 7A Field

Team	Reason
Blue Island Eisenhower	Was in 6A.
Pekin	Was in 6A.
Lake Zurich	Was in 6A.
Shepard	Has a chance to get on a roll in South Suburban play.

Class 6A

Class 6A Playoff Projection
North Bracket
(16) Amundsen	at	(1) St. Ignatius
(9) Von Steuben	at	(8) Antioch
(13) Grayslake Central	at	(4) Belvidere North
(12) Machesney Park Harlem	at	(5) Prairie Ridge
(15) Rockford East	at	(2) Cary-Grove
(10) Mather	at	(7) Lake Forest
(14) Vernon Hills	at	(3) Wauconda
(11) Crystal Lake Central	at	(6) Deerfield
South Bracket
(16) Danville	at	(1) Lemont
(9) Rock Island	at	(8) Simeon
(13) Bremen	at	(4) Crete-Monee
(12) Riverside-Brookfield	at	(5) East St. Louis
(15) East Moline United	at	(2) Richards
(10) Glenwood	at	(7) Springfield
(14) Kennedy	at	(3) Kenwood
(11) Oak Forest	at	(6) Normal West

New Teams in Class 6A Field

Team	Reason
Amundsen	Hasn’t played its tougher games as of yet.
Mather	Win over Hyde Park in Week 4 helped status.
Von Steuben	CPL Windy City is so tricky to figure.
Rockford East	There’s a real jumble in the middle of the NIC-10.

Class 6A North/South Map

Class 5A

Class 5A Playoff Projection
North Bracket
(16) Hillcrest	at	(1) Sycamore
(9) Kaneland	at	(8) Fenwick
(13) Nazareth	at	(4) Sterling
(12) Steinmetz	at	(5) Rockford Boylan
(15) Providence	at	(2) Goode
(10) Lakes	at	(7) Noble/Comer
(14) Evergreen Park	at	(3) Glenbard South
(11) Marmion	at	(6) Brooks
South Bracket
(16) Highland	at	(1) Mascoutah
(9) Dunlap	at	(8) Peoria
(13) Morton	at	(4) Morris
(12) Carbondale	at	(5) Kankakee
(15) Waterloo	at	(2) Metamora
(10) Centralia	at	(7) Triad
(14) Lincoln	at	(3) Mahomet-Seymour
(11) LaSalle-Peru	at	(6) Marion

New Teams in Class 5A Field

Team	Reason
Carbondale	Forfeit win puts it in much better position.
Noble/Comer	Continues to pick up toss-up victories.
Steinmetz	Several CPL divisions are very difficult to figure out.
Lincoln	Middle of the pack in Apollo is tough to decipher.

Class 5A North/South Map

Class 4A

Class 4A Playoff Projection
North Bracket
(16) Peoria Notre Dame	at	(1) Joliet Catholic
(9) Wheaton Academy	at	(8) Stillman Valley
(13) Marengo	at	(4) Genoa-Kingston
(12) Plano	at	(5) RIchmond-Burton
(15) St. Laurence	at	(2) Chicago Sullivan
(10) Hyde Park	at	(7) Phillips
(14) Dixon	at	(3) Wheaton St. Francis
(11) Macomb	at	(6) Coal City
South Bracket
(16) Massac County	at	(1) Rochester
(9) Olney East Richland	at	(8) Freeburg
(13) Columbia	at	(4) Sacred Heart Griffin
(12) Cahokia	at	(5) Mount Zion
(15) Salem	at	(2) Breese Central
(10) Civic Memorial	at	(7) Quincy Notre Dame
(14) Paris	at	(3) Carterville
(11) Harrisburg	at	(6) Murphysboro

New Teams in Class 4A Field

Team	Reason
Columbia	Tricky schedule, but there’s a path to five.
Massac County	Odd schedule start still makes them a tough read.
Olney East Richland	Really difficult to figure in the middle of the Little Illini.

Class 4A North/South Map

Class 3A

Class 3A Playoff Projection
North Bracket
(16) King	at	(1) Kewanee
(9) Mendota	at	(8) Julian
(13) North Boone	at	(4) Princeton
(12) Carver	at	(5) IC Catholic
(15) Lisle	at	(2) Byron
(10) Monmouth	at	(7) Reed-Custer
(14) Catalyst/Maria	at	(3) Clark
(11) Peotone	at	(6) Durand-Pecatonica
South Bracket
(16) Elmwood	at	(1) Tolono Unity
(9) Eureka	at	(8) Prairie Central
(13) Newton	at	(4) Williamsville
(12) Piasa Southwestern	at	(5) Monticello
(15) Paxton-Buckley-Loda	at	(2) Mt. Carmel
(10) DuQuoin	at	(7) Carlinville
(14) Greenville	at	(3) Benton
(11) Beardstown	at	(6) Fairfield

New Teams in Class 3A Field

Team	Reason
Monmouth	Continues to strengthen position in Three Rivers.
IC Catholic	Declared intent to “play up” on Monday.

Class 3A North/South Map

Class 2A

Class 2A Playoff Projection
North Bracket
(16) Bishop McNamara	at	(1) Wilmington
(9) Erie	at	(8) North Lawndale
(13) Mercer County	at	(4) Bismarck-Henning
(12) Deer Creek-Mackinaw	at	(5) Clifton Central
(15) Rockridge	at	(2) Tri-Valley
(10) Momence	at	(7) Tremont
(14) Newman Central Catholic	at	(3) Farmington
(11) Bloomington Central Catholic	at	(6) Knoxville
South Bracket
(16) Red Bud	at	(1) Pana
(9) White County	at	(8) Shelbyville
(13) North Mac	at	(4) Johnston City
(12) Westville	at	(5) Maroa-Forsyth
(15) Flora	at	(2) St. Teresa
(10) Nashville	at	(7) Chester
(14) Arthur	at	(3) Breese Mater Dei
(11) Lawrenceville	at	(6) Vandalia

New Teams in Class 2A Field

Team
Mercer County	Early forfeit loss complicates projection.
Arthur	Still has some work to do.
Deer Creek-Mackinaw	Heart of Illinois crossovers are seemingly random.
Red Bud	Cahokia Conference might not produce second qualifier.
Wilmington	Was in 3A.
North Mac	Sangamo is a difficult read in the middle.
Nashville	Was in 3A.

Class 2A North/South Map

Class 1A

Class 1A Playoff Projection
North Bracket
(16) South Fulton	at	(1) Lena-Winslow
(9) Annawan-Wethersfield	at	(8) Gibson City-Melvin Sibley
(13) Gibson City-Melvin Sibley	at	(4) Ottawa Marquette
(12) Hope Academy	at	(5) Raby
(15) Princeville	at	(2) Abingdon
(10) Iroquois West	at	(7) Forreston
(14) Galena	at	(3) Rushville
(11) Aurora Christian	at	(6) Fulton
South Bracket
(16) Villa Grove	at	(1) Salt Fork
(9) Sesser-Valier	at	(8) Athens
(13) Casey-Westfield	at	(4) Camp Point Central
(12) Greenfield	at	(5) Moweaqua Central A&M
(15) Warrensburg-Latham	at	(2) Carrollton
(10) Winchester West Central	at	(7) Arcola
(14) Tuscola	at	(3) Cumberland
(11) Nokomis	at	(6) Brown County

New Teams in Class 1A Field

Team	Reason
South Fulton	Prairieland Conference is a tough read.
Princeville	Upset win over Annawan-Wethersfield lifts it.