Soucie: Week 3 playoff projection

I’d like to say Week 3 provided a little more clarity on things, but I’d also like to not openly lie either.

Twenty-two teams broke into the projection that were not in last week’s. The hardest thing to do remains sorting out the Chicago Public League.

It’s always a difficult piece of this process, but the number of games that have been forfeited in the league and the relatively late notice of if and when that happens is making it difficult to sort out the eight divisions. For example, two teams that hadn’t played any games to date, popped back onto the landscape this week, played each other, and consequently I have very little information on those teams other than the fact that one can beat the other and isn’t, for the time being, forfeiting any more games.

We also still had a healthy handful of four win-teams making the projected draw. The number dipped to nine this week, after what seemed to be an astronomical number of 15 the week before. The dip can be explained by what were considered mild upsets involving teams on the 4-5/5-4 bubble, but as the season develops we’re just as likely to have teams bumped off that bubble in the other direction. It usually all washes itself out and we end up with just enough five-win teams to fill the field naturally. I remain extremely skeptical that will happen this season. At minimum, I don’t see any way there’s not at least a few four-win at-large teams in this field when all is said and done.

Although it hadn’t been made official as I compiled this projection, East St. Louis has been moved up to the Class 6A field in adherence of its wishes to “play up.” It doesn’t seem like it would be much in terms of moving things around in the field. But East St. Louis’ decision could have a very interesting effect on where the bubble line breaks between 5A/6A. Kaneland, a team that has historically done well in the playoffs, is currently pushed down to Class 5A because of East St. Louis’ decision. Kankakee, a team currently ranked in the top 5 in the Class 6A poll, resides one slot above Kaneland just off the bubble, as a large Class 5A team.

Loyola also made a late election to “play up” from Class 7A to Class 8A. This moves Loyola into the projected No. 1 seed position in 8A.

Here’s a look at all eight classes with the final six weeks projected to make up the 256-team playoff field. Maps are provided for Class 1A through 6A to see where the north/south dividing line could break. Class 7A and Class 8A are not divided into geographic groups.

Class 8A

New Teams in Class 8A Field

Class 7A

New Teams in Class 7A Field

Class 6A

New Teams in Class 6A Field

Class 6A North/South Map

Class 5A

New Teams in Class 5A Field

Class 5A North/South Map

Class 4A

New Teams in Class 4A Field

Class 4A North/South Map

Class 3A

New Teams in Class 3A Field

Class 3A North/South Map

Class 2A

New Teams in Class 2A Field

Class 2A North/South Map

Class 1A

New Teams in Class 1A Field

Class 1A North/South Map