Steve Soucie’s Week 5 playoff projection: Small ripples lead to some interesting field changes

Rare is the week where things pretty much go to script.

We were very close to having that happen this past weekend, but all it takes is a little ripple, and those sometimes turn into a wave if you get more than a few.

Fortunately for your frazzled neighborhood playoff analyst, there wasn’t a wave. But, interestingly, the ripples came from very different places.

One of those ripples came from a qualification clarification. The Chicago Public League clarified which teams will be eligible to qualify from its White Division teams, which meant a few more spots will likely be available to non-CPL teams. Several newcomers to the projection were happy to oblige.

A few results in the SouthWest Prairie Conference also caused another ripple. West Aurora, a new entrant in the projection, locked up its spot with a win over Yorkville, which then led to another ripple involving the Foxes, who were already a very tenuous entrant in the projection as a high-point potential four-win team.

Plainfield North’s narrow win over Oswego helped the Tigers immensely as last week they were also one of three high-point four-win teams. North’s position is still shaky but a little bit precarious. Conversely, Oswego slipped down several seed lines in Class 8A with the loss.

Finally, Plainfield East’s win bumped Plainfield Central from the projection, which opened up a spot for another four-win team with high playoff points. Oddly enough, that turned out to be yet another school from the SPC, Oswego East.

There were a few other individual results that led to spots being created for Danville, West Chicago and Mendon Unity. But there were results that led to the departure of almost exactly the same number of teams headed in the other direction.

That doesn’t happen often. But it also meant that the exact same number of teams as last week are projected to make the field as four-win teams as three teams: Oswego East, Fieldcrest and Benet are the teams needed to field the field of 256 teams.

Here is the Week 5 playoff projection for all eight classes. (Included in Class 1A through 6A are north/south divisional maps and below each bracket is more context on what happened in Week 5 that changed the make-up of the brackets):

Class 1A

Class 1A Enrollment Range: Up to 296.5

Largest 1A teams by enrollment: Oakwood, Fieldcrest, Cumberland, Althoff, Morrison

Smallest 2A teams by enrollment: Arthur, Bloomington Central Catholic, Momence, Orion, Chicago Christian.

New teams in field:

Class 1A North/South Map

Class 2A

Class 2A Enrollment Range: 303 to 409.5

Largest 1A teams by enrollment: Oakwood, Fieldcrest, Cumberland, Althoff, Morrison

Smallest 2A teams by enrollment: Arthur, Bloomington Central Catholic, Momence, Orion, Chicago Christian

Largest 2A teams by enrollment: Wilmington, Nashville, Dwight, Piasa Southwestern, Seneca

New teams in the field:

Class 2A North/South Map

Class 3A

Class 3A Enrollment Range: 412 to 542

Largest 2A teams by enrollment: Wilmington, Nashville, Dwight, Piasa Southwestern, Seneca

Smallest 3A teams by enrollment: Carlinville, Crane/Oregon (same enrollment), Fairfield, Beardstown

Largest 3A teams by enrollment: Greenville, Prairie Central, Paris, Roxana, Tolono Unity

New teams in field:

Class 3A North/South Map

Class 4A

Class 4A Enrollment Range: 547.5 to 868.5

Largest 3A teams by enrollment: Greenville, Prairie Central, Paris, Roxana, Tolono Unity

Smallest 4A teams by enrollment: Phillips, Harrisburg, Dyett, Phoenix, Peoria Notre Dame

Largest 4A teams by enrollment: Morris, St. Laurence, Noble/Comer, Geneseo, Ridgewood

New teams in field:

Class 4A North/South Map

Class 5A

Class 5A Enrollment Range: 868.5 to 1326.5

Largest 4A teams by enrollment: Morris, St. Laurence, Noble/Comer, Geneseo, Ridgewood

Smallest 5A teams by enrollment: Rochelle, Jacksonville, Evergreen Park, Highland, Corliss

Largest 5A teams by enrollment: Kaneland, Danville, Providence, Antioch, T.F. North

New teams in field:

Class 5A North/South Map

Class 6A

Class 6A Enrollment Range: 1340.5 to 1819.5

Largest 5A teams by enrollment: Kaneland, Danville, Providence, Antioch, T.F. North

Smallest 6A teams by enrollment: Dunlap, Centennial, Simeon, Lemont, Wauconda

Largest 6A teams by enrollment: Fenwick, Rockford Auburn, Libertyville, Grant, Lake Zurich

New teams in field:

Class 6A North/South Map

Class 7A

Class 7A Enrollment Range: 1868 to 2351.5

Largest 6A teams by enrollment: Fenwick, Rockford Auburn, Libertyville, Grant, Lake Zurich

Smallest 7A teams by enrollment: Willowbrook, Quincy, Bradley-Bourbonnais, Batavia, Collinsville

Largest 7A teams by enrollment: Plainfield North, Glenbard West, Edwardsville, Glenbard East, Downers Grove North

New teams in field:

Class 8A

Class 8A Enrollment Range: 2382.5 and up

Largest 7A teams by enrollment: Plainfield North, Glenbard West, Edwardsville, Glenbard East, Downers Grove North

Smallest 8A teams by enrollment: Maine South, St. Ignatius, Belleville East, Niles West, O’Fallon

New teams in field: