The Chicago Bears are somehow 2-1 to start Year 1 of the Matt Eberflus era following wins over the San Francisco 49ers and Houston Texans.
But don’t expect oddsmakers to change their opinion on this team just yet.
The Bears still have a regular-season win total of 6.5 at Caesars Sportsbook, which is the official odds partner of Bet Chicago Sports. That was the win total entering the year and remained at 6.5 ahead of last week’s 23-20 victory over the Texans.
About the only thing that has changed regarding the win total is the juice. Over 6.5 wins is currently priced at -105, meaning you would have to bet $105 to win $100. The under is listed at -115, which means a bettor couldn’t win $100 unless it wagered $115.
When I wrote about the win total last week, the under was priced at -125 and the over was actually being offered at +105. The under was heavily juiced entering the year, as it was the most lopsided under bet in the regular-season win total market at Caesars Sportsbook.
The vig might be more favorable for bettors now, but the chances of the Bears winning seven or more games still seem rather bleak. Their 2-1 start hasn’t been inspiring to fans, especially considering how weak the passing attack has been through three weeks.
More importantly, at least when trying to count up victories, the 2022-23 schedule will become more challenging for the Bears.
Using betting lines provided by Caesars Sportsbook over the summer, the Bears were only expected to be favored in one other game this season and that was a home meeting against the Lions, who seem to be better than expected. The Lions’ win total has bumped up to 7.5, despite their 1-2 start to the season.
|Opponent||Offseason spread||Updated win total|
|at New York Giants||NYG -3||O/U 7.5|
|at Minnesota Vikings||MIN -5.5||O/U 10.5|
|vs. Washington Commanders||PK||O/U 7|
|at New England Patriots||NE -6||N/A|
|at Dallas Cowboys||DAL -6.5||O/U 9.5|
|vs. Miami Dolphins||MIA -3||O/U 11|
|vs. Detroit Lions||CHI -2||O/U 7.5|
|at Atlanta Falcons||ATL -1.5||O/U 5.5|
|at New York Jets||NYJ -1.5||O/U 5.5|
|vs. Green Bay Packers||GB -6||O/U 10.5|
|vs. Philadelphia Eagles||PHI -3||O/U 12.5|
|vs. Buffalo Bills||BUF -7.5||O/U 12.5|
|at Detroit Lions||DET -1.5||O/U 7.5|
|vs. Minnesota Vikings||MIN -2.5||O/U 10.5|
My updated power ratings currently don’t have the Bears favored in a single game for the rest of the season. I project the Bears to be a 1-point underdog at home against the Commanders in Week 6, while making the spread a full two points in their home meetings with the Lions and Jets later in the year.
Power ratings and betting lines will obviously adjust each week, but the Bears will have to show a lot more to start getting respect from bettors and oddsmakers. Perhaps another upset win this week would do the trick, as the Bears are currently a 3-point underdog against the Giants at MetLife Stadium.