March 29, 2024


Analysis

Hub Arkush: An unprecedented wave of cap casualties are about to hit the market – and Ryan Pace is ready

As a rule, NFL general managers and personnel directors are about as tight-lipped as mimes, never wanting their 31 opponents to know what they’re plotting or what talent they covet.

Visiting with media Tuesday, Bears GM Ryan Pace was as secretive and vague as ever, which should have surprised no one, but he did drop one thought that may say a lot about what he’s thinking.

Asked if he’s planning any “big swings” like he took at Khalil Mack and Mitch Trubisky, he said, “It depends on the opportunity. It’s not like we go into it and say we’re going to take a big swing just to make headlines and make a splash.

“I think it just depends on the different targets that are there, the different options that are there, and I think this offseason more than any because of the number of players that are going to be available.

“We’re going to see a lot of guys hit the market in the coming weeks. I really think as a staff we’ve got to be able to pivot and adjust along the way to some things that we might not expect.”

Although he was speaking in general terms about the draft and free agency, the operative phrase was, “We’re going to see a lot of guys hit the market in the coming weeks.”

Because of the pandemic, the NFL salary cap will be reduced over last season for the first time since 2011 and only the second time since its inception in 1994.

Over the past seven seasons, the cap has increased at least $10 million a year. This year it is projected to decrease by $18 million.

That reality has 12 teams, including the Bears, currently over the cap, and only 11 teams with $20 million or more of cap room to use.

All 32 teams must be under the cap by 3 p.m. March 17 when the new league year begins. That means the salaries of each teams’ 51 highest paid players cannot exceed the projected $180 million cap figure.

Here is a list of just a handful of the players that could be cap casualties over the next two weeks, and this list may just be the tip of the iceberg.

OFFENSEDEFENSE
QB Jimmy GaroppoloWR Robby AndersonDE Dee FordEDGE Von Miller
QB Marcus MariotaWR Golden TateDE Carlos DunlapOLB Preston Smith
RB Melvin GordonTE Eric EbronDT Allen BaileyOLB Anthony Barr
RB Mark IngramTE Zach ErtzDT Grady JarrettLB Kwon Alexander
RB Raheem MostertTE Cameron BrateDT Michael BrockersCB Stephon Gilmore
RB Sony MichelOT Nate SolderDT Sheldon RichardsonCB Marcus Peters
RB Damien WilliamsOT Eric FisherDT Geno AtkinsS Tyrann Mathieu
WR Jarvis LandryOT Donovan Smith
WR Brandin CooksOG Gabe Jackson
WR Tyler LockettOG Trai Turner
WR Jamison CrowderOG Kevin Zeitler

There are additional stars such as Odell Beckham Jr. who will be too expensive to cut because of the dead money on their deals but could be available in trade for next to nothing for the savings the Browns could realize on his salary.

The other reality of this unusual cap situation is that most free agents – whether out of contract or released as cap casualties – are going to be looking at much smaller deals than usual because the cap space just isn’t there to pay them.

This market could be looking at bargains galore.

It feels impossible that the Bears could be better without Allen Robinson, Akiem Hicks or Kyle Fuller – a few of Pace’s own potential cap casualties – but if they were replaced by, say, OBJ, Jarrett and Gilmore at half the price and that left room to add, say, Solder and Mathieu ...

As for Pace’s quarterback dilemma: No, a Garoppolo or a Mariota isn’t a Wilson or a Watson, but the differences in their eventual cap hits almost certainly will exceed $20 million each.

Obviously, this is an extreme example, and all fluid right now, but the possibilities are real. It is wise for Pace not to close any doors or open any new ones so wide he can’t close them – at least until we know all that will be on the menu this offseason, one very different from any we’ve ever seen before.

Hub Arkush

Hub Arkush

Hub Arkush was the Senior Bears Analyst for Shaw Local News Network and ShawLocal.com.