IHSA football playoffs: Steve Soucie projects the third round

It stood to reason that the winning percentage would go down in Round 2 and it did.

But I'm actually pretty happy with the 48-16 showing in Round 2 after the 113-15 showing in the opening round, which is good for 161-31 through the first two rounds.

On to the quarterfinals we go, and nothing is easy.

Class 8A

Minooka over Brother Rice: The Indians continue to do whatever they have to do to move along. What makes the run more impressive is how they get contributions from so many in achieving their goals. But they'll need all hands on deck to insure they can get past the Crusaders, who have a size advantage in the trenches they'd like to exploit.

Gurnee Warren over Bolingbrook: Warren's defense has continued its incredible stretch of not allowing more than a touchdown to any opponent through 11 games. That doesn't bode all that well for Bolingbrook, but the Raiders defense isn't exactly a slouch either. Might be a low-scoring defensive scrum here.

Loyola over Marist: One might look at the Week 9 result in the regular season and see Marist as a possible favorite here, but this is the type of playoff game that Loyola almost never seems to end up on the shortside of. Loyola is a program that has the knack for figuring things out in the postseason, but that doesn't mean Marist will roll over.

Lincoln-Way East over Homewood-Flossmoor: Yet another regular season rematch here. Lincoln-Way East's defense really played at an elite level in the first matchup and that was the difference between the two squads. Homewood-Flossmoor has been hoping for another chance and Sean Allen has been running like a wild man the last few weeks.

Class 7A

Mount Carmel over Phillips: It's the kind of matchup that Phillips moved up to Class 7A hoping to get. It remains to be seen if they'll still feel that way after the game is contested. The Caravan have been a precision based team that's been tough to stop all season, Phillips will certainly have their hands full in trying to be the first.

Willowbrook over Lake Zurich: It seems like we've been discussing Willowbrook at this stage for multiple years. The Warriors just find a way, but they will face an interesting challenge with the Bears, who seem to have recaptured their defensive swagger as they've claimed back-to-back playoffs wins where they've allowed only a solitary touchdown to each opponent.

Nazareth over Batavia: An intriguing quarterfinal matchup between two teams that have had a boatload of postseason success in recent campaigns. Here's the guessing that the offensive fireworks will be abundant in this one and the team that can simply manage to get a few defensive stops here and there will control this game.

Wheaton Warrenville South over Rolling Meadows: Two teams that simply have remained under the radar are now vying for a spot in the semifinals. The Tigers have gotten very strong defensive play over the second half of the season, and they'll need to continue against a Mustangs team that has little difficulty posting points.

Class 6A

Prairie Ridge over Cary-Grove: Prairie Ridge absolutely beasted against Cary-Grove in the first matchup between the two teams, but history indicates that happens very infrequently in the fierce rivalry between these two schools. There have been some truly epic playoff battles between these two as well, but Cary-Grove will have to bridge the gap, especially on defense, to make this competitive.

Lake Forest over Deerfield: A season full of larger school opponents seems to have prepared Lake Forest nicely for a playoff run in 6A, while Deerfield continues to grind out victories. Both teams are entering rather rarefied air, especially with wins. Lake Forest has made a semifinal appearance just once in 2012, while Deerfield's last semifinal appearance came in 1990.

East St. Louis over Richards: The Flyers are performing at a very high level and it is going to take a monster performance to unseat them and knock them from the 6A bracket. Does Richards have the necessary firepower to do it? They certainly got an interesting preparatory course against Peoria's high-octane offense in the second round.

Chatham Glenwood over Providence: Two teams that are obviously capable of putting up big point totals when the conditions are right. Glenwood has been a little bit more consistent behind top flight quarterback Luke Lehnen, but if the Celtics get another monster effort from running back Aaron Vaughn, who knows what might happen.

Class 5A

St. Rita over Hillcrest: The Mustangs appear to be getting stronger (and healthier) with each round but this presents a stern challenge to them. However, Hillcrest will need a healthy Markiese Irving to throw its best punch and he left the Hawks Round 2 win with an first-half leg injury and his status for this contest is not known.

Sycamore over Rockford Boylan: Two teams striving to make their mark in 5A this season and Sycamore is looking to ride the momentum of one of the program's more notable victories - an overtime win over Montini, last year's Class 5A runner-up. Boylan has rolled its first two playoff opponents, and has only really been tested in one game this season.

Joliet Catholic over Mascoutah: A battle of two under seeds here (JCA is a No. 9 and Mascoutah a No. 12). The South bracket has been known to produce a low seed champion before in 5A, as JCA did the trick just last year. The Hilltoppers really have their ground game rolling right now, and Mascoutah might have trouble being the one to put that in check.

Rochester over Springfield Sacred Heart Griffin: It's another chapter in the Leonard Bowl, the battle of two head coaches in the same family as Ken, the father, coaches Sacred Heart Griffin while the son Derek is at the helm of Rochester. Rochester won this year's regular season matchup comfortably. But will things tighten in the first ever postseason Leonard Bowl?

Class 4A

Coal City over Wheaton St. Francis: The Coalers continue to dismantle everything that gets in their path, shutting out both of their first two rounds of playoff opponents. The easy, breezy playoff matchups likely ends here though. The biggest question for the Spartans is will they have standout quarterback Tommy Rittenhouse available, as he's missed both of St. Francis' playoff games to date.

IC Catholic over Richmond-Burton: This looks like an epic one. IC Catholic obviously has a playoff pedigree and a standout running back in Kyle Franklin ready to shoulder to load. Richmond-Burton, on the other hand, has quietly gone about the business of demolishing everything that has gotten in their path, as they've beaten every foe by at least 20 points.

Bishop McNamara over Murphysboro: The three-loss Fightin' Irish have emerged as the team to beat in the southern half of the bracket after picking apart Tolono Unity in Round 2. Murphysboro can't be ignored though as its a solid football team that's only actually lost one game on the field, as the other loss on their ledger came because of a forfeit during a teachers strike.

Effingham over Prairie Central: Effingham has lit up the scoreboard this season and that could be a problem for upstart Prairie Central, who despite finishing third in their conference to both Illinois Valley Central and Tolono Unity, remain the last team standing from those entrants in the Class 4A field.

Class 3A

Princeton over Paxton: Princeton has simply been overpowering opponents for several weeks and have been particularly confounding for opponents to try to score points upon. But they might get a little bit more of a run from Paxton who seems to be playing its best football at exactly the right time.

Byron over Wilmington: It seems like a year-to-year activity that these two titans of Class 3A run into one another. It's actually only five playoff matchups in the past eight years and both teams look as if they might have eyes on a state title game berth. Byron will likely try to brute its way to the win as they have a size advantage in the trenches, but Wilmington's responded to that challenge before.

Breese Mater Dei over Quincy Notre Dame: Mater Dei's only loss of the season came at the hands of Effingham, who is still alive in the 4A playoffs, and it seems so long ago. Breese also toppled Quincy Notre Dame 43-20 in the regular season as well, but those repeat games can prove to be tricky regardless of how the first game played out.

Williamsville over Vandalia: Williamsville put up mountains of points in the regular season and it hasn't really slowed in the postseason as they have posted 102 points in two easy playoff wins. Vandalia also scored a large amount of points in the regular season, but that has tapered down a bit once we've reached the rigors of the postseason.

Class 2A

Sterling Newman over Knoxville: Sterling Newman seemed to have lost some of its swagger after a few close calls in the regular season and a rare regular season loss, but it may have got it back knocking two-time defending GCMS from the postseason last week. Knoxville had to pull one out of the fire just to get here edging Watseka with a late touchdown.

Fieldcrest over Clifton Central: The tremendous defense of Fieldcrest is charged with trying to slow the high-flying offense of Clifton Central. It's hard to rely on getting into a shootout with your opposition the deeper one gets in the playoffs as steely defenses seem to solidify the deeper teams get.

Pana over Nashville: Who gets the ball last? That's a joke (sort of). Two teams here that simply rely on being able to post more points by the final whistle and they are both really, really good at it. The team that manages to get a defensive stop or two might be able to seize control of this one and not relinquish it.

Decatur St. Teresa over Auburn: This likely wasn't the game that people were expecting as Auburn stunned Maroa-Forsyth in the second round. But Decatur St. Teresa will likely be ready for whatever gets put in front of them. You shouldn't count out Auburn though as they avenged regular season loss to Maroa last week and the two other teams that beat them are still alive in the playoffs (Athens and Williamsville).

Class 1A

Kewanee Wethersfield over Morrison: An interesting battle between two teams that have flown a little under the radar despite not taking a regular season loss. Both have very capable offenses and stout defenses so this would could come down to a play or two either way.

Lena-Winslow over Freeport Aquin: Starting to feel a little sorry for Lena-Winslow opponents at this point. L-W has scored at least 30 points in every game this season and that's as close as anyone has gotten to beating them. Aquin's not exactly a slouch, but they have struggled to play lock down defense and if that's not there against L-W, problems will soon follow.

Moweaqua Central A&M over Arcola: A&M also looks like a runaway freight train, scoring points at an epic rate. They have already dropped 123 points in two playoff games and scored at least 40 in every game this season but one. Arcola is no stranger to scoring points either, but not at the downright silly rate of their opponents.

Athens over Carrollton: Athens continues to show the benefits of playing in one of the stronger small school conferences in the state before sliding down to Class 1A for the postseason. Carrollton has gone into grinder mode in the postseason, but that might not be enough to get them through this round.